INDIANAPOLIS — Two members of Indiana’s best political team said Friday that a pair of high-profile races will come down to which party turns out more voters.

Two key Indiana races have shifted toward Democrats in recent days.

On Thursday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, changed its rating of the secretary of state’s race from “tossup” to “Lean D.” The four candidates in that race are Republican Max Engling, Democrat Beau Bayh, Libertarian Lauri Shillings and Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard.

On Friday, the Cook Political Report changed its rating of Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, currently represented by Republican Victoria Spartz, from “Likely R” to “Lean R.” The district was one of 12 House seats the report shifted toward Democrats in its final rating changes before Election Day. Spartz faces Democrat J.D. Ford in that race. There are no independent or third-party candidates on the ballot. Earlier this year, the report rated Spartz’s seat “Solid R.”

Mario Massillamany, the Hamilton County Republican Party chair and an “All INdiana Politics” contributor, said early-voting turnout is not necessarily a good barometer because Republicans tend to vote later than Democrats. He said he still thinks Engling will win, but believes Ballard will siphon off votes Engling needs.

“What we need is Republicans to show up and vote,” Massillamany said. “There are more Republicans. The problem is getting them excited, getting them energized and getting them to show up and vote.”

Democratic strategist and fellow “All INdiana Politics” contributor Lara Beck said Bayh has benefited from a disciplined campaign and Republican infighting. In May, Engling launched a successful last-minute campaign to unseat incumbent Secretary of State Diego Morales at the Indiana Republican Party convention in June.

“When you look at that, it has been so negative, and all that negativity is out in the public domain. It’s not just being done behind the scenes; it’s out front and center,” she said. “So for somebody like Beau Bayh, they’ve been able to pick up the mantle. They’ve been able to run, and it’s been very hard for everyone to catch up with him.”

The Cook Political Report rates the 5th Congressional District as R+8. That makes it the only Indiana district without a double-digit Republican lead in average voter results over the past two presidential elections. Beck said the district’s changing politics provide an opening for Democrats. The 5th District includes the Indianapolis suburbs of Fishers, Carmel and Westfield, which have been shifting toward Democrats over the past few elections.

“I mean, these counties and these communities are changing in terms of how they vote. And so, I think we will ultimately one day see this seat go to a Democrat. Whether it’s this year or not, I think we’ve got a really good chance to win it.”

Massillamany said Spartz still has a chance to win, but waited too long to attack Ford.

“He has a history and he has a legacy of having bad votes that are not for Hoosiers, nor are they for the 5th District,” he said. “I think (Spartz) has done a really poor job in defining J.D. Ford. I think that she is doing that now and I think that she is going to win this seat.”

Besides the secretary of state and 5th District races, Beck and Massillamany said to watch four Indiana House races Tuesday night: those involving Republican incumbents Becky Cash in Carmel, Danny Lopez in Carmel, Hunter Smith in Zionsville and Chris Jeter in Fishers. Democrats need to flip four seats to break the Republican supermajority in the House. They have targeted those four races, all in Indianapolis’ northern suburbs. Massillamany and Beck said those four seats will be good barometers for how the night will go statewide.

“All Indiana Politics” airs at 9:30 a.m. Sunday on WISH-TV and 11:30 p.m. Sunday on WRTV.

Election Day is Tuesday. Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. People must be registered to vote and have a valid photo ID issued by the state of Indiana or the federal government, such as a driver’s license or passport, to cast a ballot. All Bureau of Motor Vehicle branches will be open from 8:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday and from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Tuesday to process ID applications. A temporary paper ID received at the BMV will be accepted.

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