INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Central Indiana is heading into a very active 48-hour stretch that will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms, heavy rain, and aggravating ongoing flooding conditions.

Flooding concerns:

River flooding remains ongoing across southern portions of Central Indiana, especially south of Interstate 70, where widespread minor to moderate flooding continues. As we expect an additional inch or two of rain through Wednesday night, this will likely exacerbate or prolong these flooding conditions through the end of the week. Flood warnings continue for the forks of the White River this week.

Record warmth again today:

We will likely challenge our record high for the second day in a row today. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will be extremely warm and muggy for this early in the season. Temperatures will climb into the mid-70s. The record high for today is 74° set back in 2009. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the low to mid-60s—plenty enough to make it feel muggy and provide fuel for storms to fire up later tonight.

Severe storms tonight:

The main severe weather threats will arrive very late tonight into Wednesday morning as a cold front drags across the Midwest. Much of our state is in a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather. North and northwestern parts of the state are in a Level 3 out of 5 risk, where the highest threat for tornadoes and hail exists overnight.

Storms will likely start firing by mid-evening in northern and central Illinois. Those storms will then track eastward into northwestern Indiana. At some point overnight, we will see those storms expand southward. The greatest threat for hail and tornadoes will be when the storms remain isolated. As the storms line out, the threat will evolve into more of a damaging wind concern overnight.

Because these storms will be developing during the overnight hours while most people are sleeping, make sure to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts through the night.

More rain and storms Wednesday:

Another round of storms will roll through on Wednesday. We will have ongoing showers and storms through Wednesday morning as the cold front drags across the region. The next round of storms develops Wednesday afternoon. There is a chance we could see some stronger storms with damaging winds—the primary concern in southeastern portions of the state. Much of this will depend on how quickly the atmosphere can recover following the storms from early Wednesday morning.

The southeastern portion of the state is under a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms.

As previously mentioned, flooding will be a concern on top of the severe weather. Most areas are expected to receive at least an inch to an inch and a half of rain, with some spots picking up as much as 2 inches. Because the ground is already overly saturated, it will not take much to trigger localized flash flooding—in addition to the ongoing river flooding issues across the southern half of the state.

Big changes ahead:

In the wake of this powerful system, we turn sharply colder on Thursday, but conditions should be quiet. High temperatures will be closer to average, with highs in the upper 40s to around 50°.

Friday and Saturday will be slightly warmer with mainly dry conditions. It may be briefly breezy Friday morning with a slight shower chance, but overall, the vast majority of this upcoming weekend looks quiet.

Another potent system rolls in Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region along with some gusty winds. We will turn sharply colder early next week, with highs only in the mid-30s on Monday and a chance of light snow showers possible.

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